Tuesday, March 29, 2016

potential first rounders, draft busts, and other random NFL thoughts

Most years, I am consumed by the NFL draft at this time of year.  I read reviews.  I watch a little prospect video and usually I put together what I hope will be an all-inclusive list of potential first rounders.

Here's what I see this year.  (I was being a little lazy with LBs this year. There are probably a could 2-3rd round grade LBs who are not on this list who a team's coaching staff could fall in love with and take at the end of the first round.)  Hopefully this will be useful to people doing mock drafts.

As I said in my last post, this is a weak draft at the top, but upon refection, there is a fair amount of starting capable players on both lines. 

I think you might have 4 NFL starting QBs in this draft with Goff, Wentz, Lynch, and Jones all looking like good prospects for any team willing to bring them around slowly or likely busts for any team throwing them into the fire.

None of the backs in this draft hit me as the complete package.  You have good runners Booker, Dixon, Howard, Prorise, and Collins, but they each have glaring flaws.  It just depends what flaw you can deal with.  Henry and Elliot are very talented, but will they be any more than marginal if their OL's are not up to task?  I find it odd that I am questioning the running ability of the two most highly decorated runners in a draft.  But I am.

Just not terribly excited about this draft...

There are about 20 guys who will be first rounders and about 20 more who have fairly good odds of making it.  Really after you hit about 20, teams start thinking about the value of the additional year on first rounder contracts.  Sometimes they reach even beyond that next tier as a staff falls for a player.

I have tried to list guys who sound like they have a shot to be starters in the right situations and who have attributes a team might fall in love with, leading the team to take the player in the 1(21) to 1 (29) range.

The list

Player Pos Ht Class Wt College Grade/DraftRange
Jared Goff QB Jr 6'4" 215 California   1
Carson Wentz QB Sr 6'5" 237 North Dakota St.  1
Paxton Lynch QB rJr 6'7" 244 Memphis   1-2
Connor Cook QB rSr 6'4" 217 Michigan St.  1-3
Christian HackenbergQB Jr 6'4" 223 Penn St.   1-4
Cardale Jones QB rJr 6'5" 253 Ohio State  1-5
Ezekiel Elliott RB Jr 6'0" 225 Ohio St.   1
Derrick Henry RB Jr 6'3" 247 Alabama   1-2
Jordan Howard RB Jr 6'0" 230 Indiana   1-3
Devontae Booker RB rSr 5'11" 219 Utah   2
Kenneth Dixon RB Sr 5'10" 215 Louisiana Tech  2
Paul Perkins RB rJr 5'10" 208 UCLA   2-4
Alex Collins RB Jr 5'10" 217 Arkansas   3-4
C.J. Prosise RB rJr 6'0" 220 Notre Dame  2-4
Laremy Tunsil LT Jr 6'5" 310 Mississippi  1
Ronnie Stanley LT rJr 6'6" 312 Notre Dame  1
Jack Conklin LT rJr 6'6" 308 Michigan St.  1
Taylor Decker OT Sr 6'7" 310 Ohio St.   1
Le'Raven Clark LT rSr 6'5" 316 Texas Tech  1-2
Jason Spriggs LT Sr 6'6" 301 Indiana   1-2
Shon Coleman RT rJr 6'5" 307 Auburn   2
Willie Beavers LT Sr 6'4" 324 Western Michigan  2-5
Cody Whitehair OG rSr 6'4" 301 Kansas St.   1-2
Germain Ifedi OG rJr 6'6" 324 Texas A&M  1-2
Joshua Garnett OG Sr 6'4" 312 Stanford   2
Christian Westerman OG rSr 6'3" 298 Arizona State  2-3
Landon Turner OG rSr 6'4" 330 North Carolina  3
Joe Dahl OG Sr 6'4" 304 Washington St.  3-6
Ryan Kelly C rSr 6'4" 311 Alabama   1-2
Nick Martin C rSr 6'4" 299 Notre Dame  2-3
Max Tuerk C Sr 6'5" 298 USC   3-5
Hunter Henry TE Jr 6'5" 250 Arkansas   1-2
Austin Hooper TE rSo 6'4" 254 Stanford   2-3
Nick Vannett TE rSr 6'6" 257 Ohio St.   2-3
Tyler Higbee TE rSr 6'6" 249 Western Kentucky  3-4
Will Fuller WR Jr 6'0" 186 Notre Dame  1-2
Laquon Treadwell WR Jr 6'2" 221 Mississippi  1
Corey Coleman WR rJr 5'11" 194 Baylor   1-2
Tyler Boyd WR Jr 6'1" 197 Pittsburgh   1-2
Josh Doctson WR rSr 6'2" 202 TCU   1-2
Sterling Shepard WR Sr 5'10" 194 Oklahoma   1-3
Charone Peake WR rSr 6'2" 209 Clemson   2-5
Michael Thomas WR rJr 6'3" 212 Ohio St.   1-2
Pharoh Cooper WR Jr 5'11" 203 South Carolina  2-3
Braxton Miller WR rSr 6'1" 201 Ohio St.   1-3

Player Pos Ht Class Wt College Grade
DeForest Buckner 3-4DE Sr 6'7" 291 Oregon   1
Joey Bosa 4-3DE Jr 6'5" 269 Ohio St.   1
Kevin Dodd 4-3DE rJr 6'5" 277 Clemson   1-2
Shaq Lawson 4-3DE rJr 6'3" 269 Clemson   1-2
Emmanuel Ogbah 4-3DE rJr 6'4" 273 Oklahoma St.  1-2
Noah Spence 3-4OLB rJr 6'2" 251 Eastern Kentucky  1-2
Shilique Calhoun 3-4OLB rSr 6'4" 251 Michigan St.  2
Carl Nassib 4-3DE rSr 6'7" 277 Penn St.   3
Shawn Oakman 3-4DE rSr 6'8" 287 Baylor   3
Ronald Blair 4-3DE Sr 6'2" 284 Appalachian St.  4
A'Shawn Robinson DT Jr 6'4" 307 Alabama   1
Sheldon Rankins DT Sr 6'1" 299 Louisville   1
Robert Nkemdiche DT Jr 6'3" 294 Mississippi  1-2
Vernon Butler NT Sr 6'4" 323 Louisiana Tech  1-2
Jarran Reed DT Sr 6'3" 307 Alabama   1-2
Jonathan Bullard DT Sr 6'3" 285 Florida   1-2
Chris Jones DT Jr 6'6" 310 Mississippi St.  1-3
Hassan Ridgeway DT rJr 6'3" 303 Texas   1-5
Willie Henry DT Jr 6'3" 303 Michigan   1-5
Adolphus WashingtonDT Sr 6'3" 301 Ohio St.   2-3
Andrew Billings NT Jr 6'1" 311 Baylor   1-2
Kenny Clark NT Jr 6'3" 314 UCLA   1-2
Austin Johnson NT rJr 6'4" 314 Penn St.   1-2
Reggie Ragland ILB Sr 6'1" 247 Alabama   1
Kentrell Brothers MLB rSr 6'0" 245 Missouri   2-4
Scooby Wright, III MLB Jr 6'0" 239 Arizona   2-5
Myles Jack OLB Jr 6'1" 245 UCLA   1
Leonard Floyd OLB rJr 6'6" 244 Georgia   1-2
Jaylon Smith OLB Jr 6'2" 223 Notre Dame  1-2
Darron Lee OLB rSo 6'1" 232 Ohio St.   1-2
Su'a Cravens OLB Jr 6'1" 226 USC   1-2
Kyler Fackrell OLB rSr 6'5" 245 Utah St.   2-3
Jordan Jenkins OLB Sr 6'3" 259 Georgia   2-4
Jalen Ramsey CB Jr 6'1" 209 Florida St.  1
Vernon Hargreaves,IIICB Jr 5'10" 204 Florida   1
Eli Apple CB rSo 6'1" 199 Ohio St.   1-2
Mackensie AlexanderCB rSo 5'10" 190 Clemson   1-2
William Jackson,III CB Sr 6'0" 189 Houston   1-2
Ronald Zamort CB Sr 5'10" 174 Western Michigan  1-2
Artie Burns CB Jr 6'0" 193 Miami   2
Kendall Fuller CB Jr 5'11" 187 Virginia Tech  2-3
Xavien Howard CB rJr 6'0" 201 Baylor   2-3
Vonn Bell  FS Jr 5'11" 199 Ohio St.   1-3
T.J. Green FS Jr 6'2" 209 Clemson   3-4
Karl Joseph FS Sr 5'10" 205 West Virginia  2-3
Thompson, Darian FS Sr 6'2" 208 Boise St.   4
Neal, Keanu SS Jr 6'0" 211 Florida   2-FA
Jeremy Cash SS rSr 6'0" 212 Duke   2-3
Miles Killebrew SS Sr 6'2" 217 Southern Utah  3-4

As I was looking at this year's draft I took a look back at last year's draft ---specifically the RBs --- and I saw two players fans consider busts:

San Diego RB  Melvin Gordon
Atlanta RB Tevin Coleman

and a back considered a hit last year

Cleveland RB Duke Johnson


This kind of thinking drives me nuts.

I firmly believe 90% of players taken in the top 100 of the NFL draft can play in the NFL.  The question is almost exclusively, "Will they land in a situation that allows them to succeed?"

Are they 4-3 DEs drafted by a 3-4 team?  Are they 3-4 OLBs drafted by a 4-3 team?  Are they 3rd down backs, deadly in the passing game, drafted by teams needing a back who can pick up short yardage and move the chains? Are they QBs who need 2-3 years on the bench refining their mechanics and getting used to the speed of the NFL who are drafted by a team without a legit NFL QB on the roster?  Does their position coach believe in them as a prospect or will they give PT to others?

In general "the NFL system" fucks up most of the talent entering the league.

They do far too much projecting.  "I like how this guy did this on this one play.  I bet if our coaches/strength staff worked with him, he could develop into a guy who can do this all the time."

How about just drafting the guy who does it most of the time already?

San Diego has an atrocious OL. So how do they address that?   They draft a RB who played his entire career behind and exceptional collegiate line.  They draft a guy who rarely ever saw a DL behind the line of scrimmage.  How is that guy going to function behind the Charger's line?

He's a bust? 

I like the Charger's GM, but that is a bust pick, not a bust player.  That is putting a talent into a bad fit.

San Diego sure better pick up some linemen if they want to get anything out of that pick last year.

Coleman is another guy a team is "trying to develop" into the kind of player they wanted.  He is also sitting behind a workhorse RB Devonte Freeman. Now I get it that Freeman hadn't lit the world on fire before the Falcolns drafted Coleman, but does that make Coleman a bust because another player had a breakout year---taking all the carries?


I like Duke Johnson as a player, but it isn't like he immediately forced the fairly marginal Isaiah Crowell to the bench!

The whole thing about draft "hits" and "busts" are so arbitrary.

No comments:

Post a Comment