Stacy is a guy who picks up the blitz, has relatively shifty feet and has the power to break a chest tackle. He doesn't have NFL breakaway speed and is very suspectible to being tripped up when players get his feet.
Running behind Dallas's OL will help him a lot with the latter issue.
He isn't golden but he is proven and has a lot of the same attributes that Demarco Murray had and he is only 24.
Although Stacy runs in a style that takes a lot of hits, his collegiate and pro workload suggests he has another 5 years in him.
He is a cheap contract.
I think a Stacy/Darren McFadden thunder and lightning rushing duo could be as effective as Murray. I still want Zack Zenner behind them though. (Draft Zenner.)
Friday, May 1, 2015
Day 1 draft thoughts...
So the Cowboys took CB Byron Jones out of UConn in the first round.
Where to begin..?
Lets start with the good. This guy is a freakish athlete who set an unofficial world's record in the broad jump at the combine and topped out several different combine categories.
He's a big corner at 6-1 199 who ran a 4.36 40 at the UConn pro day. He physically looks like a #1 CB.
He's a guy from a very non-dysfunctional family. The Cowboys love him as a person. He fits their "right kind of guy" blueprint to a tee. He clearly has great talent and they feel like he is going to work hard for them.
A lot of scouts think very highly of him.
Now the bad.
He had an jury that took him out for most of his senior year. That injury undoubtedly suppressed his rankings entering the pre-draft process so take this next bit with some salt.
I pulled the NFL and Yahoo's list of the top 150 or so prospects entering the combine. He wasn't on either of them.
That is a little concerning.
I looked in the two draft magazines I purchased this year...He didn't make either magazine. At all. Nowhere.
Magazines will miss sometimes, but this is becoming a little more concerning.
conclusions
I think the timing of the injury could explain a lot with regards to the lists. That and the fact that CBs more than any other position jump all over the board leading up to the draft, but thinking you know more than everyone else in drafting is usually a pretty good sign of fatal groupthink in your selection room. That concerns me.
I recently heard a story told by former scout Brian Broaddus on former Cowboy's 1st round bust DE Shante Carver. Broaddus worked for the Packers back then and they had Carver as a seventh round grade and had crossed him off their board because Carver had a real problem with chewing tobacco. He chewed so much of it that it was painful for him to eat.
Now Carver had the knack and talent for pass rushing but only weighed about 235. The Packers rightly concluded they would never be able to get him to eat enough to get up to the 260 range required to handle an NFL pounding.
Jerry and the Cowboys clearly thought they were outsmarting the league.
Carver had some sacks in the NFL, but it was quickly apparent he was too small to start and would never gain any weight. He was quickly replaced by a more sizeable 1st round DE. He was out of the league in a few years. (I have long thought the Cowboys made a huge mistake in not limiting Carver to being a pass rush specialist getting 15 passing plays a game, but I suppose that was not conceptually "what they invested in".)
Now this is the anti-Carver here. Where Carver had red flag around him and an excellent collegiate resume, this kid is just the opposite.
While I am excited we landed a 6-1 199 CB with 4.36 speed who looks pretty solid on and off the field and a lot of scouts like, the draft follower in me can't help but think this kind of pick rarely is a home run.
Still it is a need position and the scheme protects CBs. We just need him to tackle his guy after the catch. He seems like a guy who will do that. With this CB situation he will get every chance to play.
If he turns into a solid #2 CB I'll be happy.
Where to begin..?
Lets start with the good. This guy is a freakish athlete who set an unofficial world's record in the broad jump at the combine and topped out several different combine categories.
He's a big corner at 6-1 199 who ran a 4.36 40 at the UConn pro day. He physically looks like a #1 CB.
He's a guy from a very non-dysfunctional family. The Cowboys love him as a person. He fits their "right kind of guy" blueprint to a tee. He clearly has great talent and they feel like he is going to work hard for them.
A lot of scouts think very highly of him.
Now the bad.
He had an jury that took him out for most of his senior year. That injury undoubtedly suppressed his rankings entering the pre-draft process so take this next bit with some salt.
I pulled the NFL and Yahoo's list of the top 150 or so prospects entering the combine. He wasn't on either of them.
That is a little concerning.
I looked in the two draft magazines I purchased this year...He didn't make either magazine. At all. Nowhere.
Magazines will miss sometimes, but this is becoming a little more concerning.
conclusions
I think the timing of the injury could explain a lot with regards to the lists. That and the fact that CBs more than any other position jump all over the board leading up to the draft, but thinking you know more than everyone else in drafting is usually a pretty good sign of fatal groupthink in your selection room. That concerns me.
I recently heard a story told by former scout Brian Broaddus on former Cowboy's 1st round bust DE Shante Carver. Broaddus worked for the Packers back then and they had Carver as a seventh round grade and had crossed him off their board because Carver had a real problem with chewing tobacco. He chewed so much of it that it was painful for him to eat.
Now Carver had the knack and talent for pass rushing but only weighed about 235. The Packers rightly concluded they would never be able to get him to eat enough to get up to the 260 range required to handle an NFL pounding.
Jerry and the Cowboys clearly thought they were outsmarting the league.
Carver had some sacks in the NFL, but it was quickly apparent he was too small to start and would never gain any weight. He was quickly replaced by a more sizeable 1st round DE. He was out of the league in a few years. (I have long thought the Cowboys made a huge mistake in not limiting Carver to being a pass rush specialist getting 15 passing plays a game, but I suppose that was not conceptually "what they invested in".)
Now this is the anti-Carver here. Where Carver had red flag around him and an excellent collegiate resume, this kid is just the opposite.
While I am excited we landed a 6-1 199 CB with 4.36 speed who looks pretty solid on and off the field and a lot of scouts like, the draft follower in me can't help but think this kind of pick rarely is a home run.
Still it is a need position and the scheme protects CBs. We just need him to tackle his guy after the catch. He seems like a guy who will do that. With this CB situation he will get every chance to play.
If he turns into a solid #2 CB I'll be happy.
Wednesday, April 22, 2015
Joel Klatt is a straight up sports day pimp.
I am a big NFL draft follower. I watch a lot of prospect videos (I won't say "film", because unless you are watching a player on every play of a game, you aren't watching film.). I get a pretty good feel from watching some players and when you do that you get a pretty good feel for which reporters to read.
Check out this prospect ranking.
http://www.foxsports.com/nfl/story/nfl-draft-big-board-version-4-sean-mannion-marcus-mariota-jameis-winston-joel-klatt-031715
I love the fact that he points out exactly what he likes and doesn't on each guy and on the prospects I know it matches my opinions for the most part. While I do suspect his knowledge of the QB position is not maybe up to the level of his work on other positions, I will be adding this guy to my list of regular reads. He is very good.
Check out this prospect ranking.
http://www.foxsports.com/nfl/story/nfl-draft-big-board-version-4-sean-mannion-marcus-mariota-jameis-winston-joel-klatt-031715
I love the fact that he points out exactly what he likes and doesn't on each guy and on the prospects I know it matches my opinions for the most part. While I do suspect his knowledge of the QB position is not maybe up to the level of his work on other positions, I will be adding this guy to my list of regular reads. He is very good.
I love the idea of Zack Zenner to the Cowboys
I have no idea if they are looking at him, but I can't help but look at his play and think, "Man...he would be a perfect backup in Dallas. I think he would totally be able to handle all the responsibilities of the starting job for 6 games a year for the next 7 years."
Unlike Cobb who under further review I see a lot of bad tape (While he looks good at times, he seems slow to the line fairly consistently and lacks any breakaway speed --- that combo kills you in the NFL), I am consistently impressed with Zenner's film.
Here is Zenner in the snow vs. Montana State in the FCS playoffs. This is especially good video because we have had trouble in cold weather games the past few years. I love the way he has a sense for how good a footing he has. You see him freeze defenders and blow by them repeatedly in this video.
It also shows him blocking --- pretty solid job although once he just nicks his guy and his man get to the QB (who holds the ball too long). I am not too concerned about that as the block would have been sufficient for Romo.
Here is Zenner on solid ground where you get a real feel for his speed. I like that he has explosion. you see him break some tackles and you see him explode into his top gear. He times at 4.6 but you see him on game film running away from people utilizing a burst of what looks like something between 4.45 to 4.5 to me. He is definitely an example of a player with "game speed".
He beat up two bad FBS defenses in Nebraska and Kansas, but he also did quite well vs. SEC east powerhouse Missouri's defense.
Zack Kruse has joined me on the Zenner bandwagon. He notes in his fine article that
"...when given a chance to face the big boys, Zenner always rose to the occasion.
He opened up a breakout 2012 campaign with 183 rushing yards and a 99-yard first-quarter touchdown against Kansas. One year later, Zenner took the field at Nebraska's Memorial Stadium and busted off 202 rushing yards and two scores. He completed his trifecta of big-school domination last season, when he rushed for 103 yards—including a 75-yard touchdown—against Missouri.
Over his final 41 collegiate games, Zenner averaged 148.2 rushing yards and 6.2 yards per carry. In his three chances to face top-level competition, he averaged 162.7 and 8.0. The opposition knock just doesn't hold water for the former Minnesota prep star. "
He goes on to note that Zenner rushed for 6078 yards and 58 TDs the last three years and that his measurable are VERY similar to the third tier of RBs in this draft --- Boise State's J. Ajayi and Alabama's T.J. Yeldon --- if not better.
and he's not the only one to join me on the Zenner bandwagon including ESPN talent. Gil Brandt likes him too.
I think Zenner won't hit on a lot of teams, but on a team like Dallas, where the hole is where it is supposed to be, Zenner would be a nice add.
And Zenner is no knucklehead. No, Zenner is pre-med. Dallas, if you are looking for the right kind of guy, look no further....
Unlike Cobb who under further review I see a lot of bad tape (While he looks good at times, he seems slow to the line fairly consistently and lacks any breakaway speed --- that combo kills you in the NFL), I am consistently impressed with Zenner's film.
Here is Zenner in the snow vs. Montana State in the FCS playoffs. This is especially good video because we have had trouble in cold weather games the past few years. I love the way he has a sense for how good a footing he has. You see him freeze defenders and blow by them repeatedly in this video.
It also shows him blocking --- pretty solid job although once he just nicks his guy and his man get to the QB (who holds the ball too long). I am not too concerned about that as the block would have been sufficient for Romo.
Here is Zenner on solid ground where you get a real feel for his speed. I like that he has explosion. you see him break some tackles and you see him explode into his top gear. He times at 4.6 but you see him on game film running away from people utilizing a burst of what looks like something between 4.45 to 4.5 to me. He is definitely an example of a player with "game speed".
He beat up two bad FBS defenses in Nebraska and Kansas, but he also did quite well vs. SEC east powerhouse Missouri's defense.
Zack Kruse has joined me on the Zenner bandwagon. He notes in his fine article that
"...when given a chance to face the big boys, Zenner always rose to the occasion.
He opened up a breakout 2012 campaign with 183 rushing yards and a 99-yard first-quarter touchdown against Kansas. One year later, Zenner took the field at Nebraska's Memorial Stadium and busted off 202 rushing yards and two scores. He completed his trifecta of big-school domination last season, when he rushed for 103 yards—including a 75-yard touchdown—against Missouri.
Over his final 41 collegiate games, Zenner averaged 148.2 rushing yards and 6.2 yards per carry. In his three chances to face top-level competition, he averaged 162.7 and 8.0. The opposition knock just doesn't hold water for the former Minnesota prep star. "
He goes on to note that Zenner rushed for 6078 yards and 58 TDs the last three years and that his measurable are VERY similar to the third tier of RBs in this draft --- Boise State's J. Ajayi and Alabama's T.J. Yeldon --- if not better.
and he's not the only one to join me on the Zenner bandwagon including ESPN talent. Gil Brandt likes him too.
I think Zenner won't hit on a lot of teams, but on a team like Dallas, where the hole is where it is supposed to be, Zenner would be a nice add.
And Zenner is no knucklehead. No, Zenner is pre-med. Dallas, if you are looking for the right kind of guy, look no further....
Mavs update
I blasted Rick Carlisle a few weeks ago for alienating Rajon Rondo, so let me give some credit where credit is due. Carlisle backed the hell off and gave Rondo some freedom and the results have been markedly better since then. Rondo is still hit or miss, but he is a definite factor a lot if not most nights now.
I still don't love Carlisle for the previously mentioned reason, but I am glad to see him trying to work with a guy who isn't one of his guys for once.
Will that mean a series victory for the Mavs? I can't say. In Corey Brewer, Jet Terry, Dwight Howard, and James Harden, the Rockets have a lot of guys who can swing games. Dallas has Dirk, Rondo, and Tyson...will that be enough?
I wish we still had Brewer and Shawn Marion.
I still don't love Carlisle for the previously mentioned reason, but I am glad to see him trying to work with a guy who isn't one of his guys for once.
Will that mean a series victory for the Mavs? I can't say. In Corey Brewer, Jet Terry, Dwight Howard, and James Harden, the Rockets have a lot of guys who can swing games. Dallas has Dirk, Rondo, and Tyson...will that be enough?
I wish we still had Brewer and Shawn Marion.
Thursday, April 16, 2015
Eric Dickerson/Adrian Peterson (a.k.a. Todd Gurley) blows minds with his football IQ. Plus draft talk.
Beyond the fact that a healthy Eric Dickerson/Adrian Peterson (a.k.a. Todd Gurley) is the best running back since his namesake Adrian Peterson came out, I loved the fact that he is a good pass blocker. I was totally blown away with how polished he was in that regard though.
Draft Academy covered EDAP's knowledge of the game. His post season coach Fred McCrary said he was the most knowledgeable running back about coverage responsibilities he had worked with since DeMarco Murray.
All of the other top runners in this class are suspect in that regard --- not what you need with Tony Romo as your starting QB. (For the record, I don't love the RBs, CBs, or the OLs in this draft. Lots of busts there. I do like the LBs and to a degree the WRs.)
My desire to see EDAP under a star helmet is pretty high right now. I don't know if there is anyone else that really jazzes me as a great value. My feeling is that both OL Brandon Scherff (a very solid looking pick) and NT Danny Shelton (a guy who has top talent but is a little more risky after a misleading signature season) will be gone in the early teens and Phillip Dorsett is way too risky in the 16-22 area in that he was not as productive as his skills suggest he should have been in college.
I am worried that the exposure EDAP is getting may push him out of Dallas's reach ---I consider that to be what the first, third, and fourth round picks will get the team --- maybe the 17-20th pick.
I think the team you have to get ahead of is Arizona. Getting to that late teen range would probably make moving up ahead of Dallas too cost prohibitive for the Cardinals.
There is an article suggesting EDAP may have climbed into the top 10. He is an elite talent. All it takes is one team to fall in love with him and it is done. Elite talents usually have a few teams that fall for them.
If you can't land one of those top talent guys, I wouldn't mind WR Devin Smith at 27 for the next 5 years. He is fast but not Phillip Dorsett fast, but being a deep threat is a skill in itself and he has that skill in spades. Additionally he looks very dangerous as a return man. That would be a very good value for Dallas.
Bud Dupree is a guy Dallas brought in so he is on the list. He would be a decent value there and I could totally see him getting taken at 27. He doesn't finish as much as you'd hope, but he is disruptive. Dallas has long looked just as favorably on guys who are disruptive vs. guys who finish. You would think with the Hardy signing they would be out on DEs, but Dallas's defensive staff runs a rush at all costs scheme.
Plus maybe they see something else there?
I wonder if they think he could play a little strong side LB for now and bring a rush. Who knows. Dallas's defensive staff loves the idea of bringing in a LB who can rush the passer out of a 4-3. That's why they were ready to take Shazier last year. Dupree clocked a pretty amazing 40 time for his size. Normally consistent multi-year production, decent size, and a borderline freakish 40 time goes around 10-15 in the draft. In that, there seems to be some value there. I don't love him as a prospect, but I could warm to him if he can fill in at SLB this year.
I think a solid strategy might be trading down to 31 or 32 or even the 2nd round.
I am worried about that current spot though as I could see Dallas "reaching" at least IMO for guys like RB Tevin Coleman or LB Bernardrick McKinney. Coleman is no doubt a burner capable of breaking long runs even in the NFL, but to me I don't see a great back there. I think he will get stopped too frequently on short yardage runs and I don't trust him pass blocking. He's a great RB for a 9 win team, but maybe not for a team that wants to win the superbowl. I think he will be a guy good defenses control.
He is a second round back to me, but his speed has caught some teams' attention and he could go late first. (That isn't a bad spot to take a RB as you get 5 years on that contract. Why get a RB in the 33-40 range when you can pick him at 31 or 32 at a trivial cost and get an extra year on his rookie contract? NFL GMs weirdly haven't figured that out.) I just hope it isn't to Dallas that picks him.
I think we may have a similar player in Darren McFadden, but one who is a better blocker.
While I don't love the McKinney idea, I would be ok with that at 32. He does look like a starter. He would solve the vitally important MLB spot for the next 10 years with a guy who seems stable.
Draft Academy covered EDAP's knowledge of the game. His post season coach Fred McCrary said he was the most knowledgeable running back about coverage responsibilities he had worked with since DeMarco Murray.
All of the other top runners in this class are suspect in that regard --- not what you need with Tony Romo as your starting QB. (For the record, I don't love the RBs, CBs, or the OLs in this draft. Lots of busts there. I do like the LBs and to a degree the WRs.)
My desire to see EDAP under a star helmet is pretty high right now. I don't know if there is anyone else that really jazzes me as a great value. My feeling is that both OL Brandon Scherff (a very solid looking pick) and NT Danny Shelton (a guy who has top talent but is a little more risky after a misleading signature season) will be gone in the early teens and Phillip Dorsett is way too risky in the 16-22 area in that he was not as productive as his skills suggest he should have been in college.
I am worried that the exposure EDAP is getting may push him out of Dallas's reach ---I consider that to be what the first, third, and fourth round picks will get the team --- maybe the 17-20th pick.
I think the team you have to get ahead of is Arizona. Getting to that late teen range would probably make moving up ahead of Dallas too cost prohibitive for the Cardinals.
There is an article suggesting EDAP may have climbed into the top 10. He is an elite talent. All it takes is one team to fall in love with him and it is done. Elite talents usually have a few teams that fall for them.
If you can't land one of those top talent guys, I wouldn't mind WR Devin Smith at 27 for the next 5 years. He is fast but not Phillip Dorsett fast, but being a deep threat is a skill in itself and he has that skill in spades. Additionally he looks very dangerous as a return man. That would be a very good value for Dallas.
Bud Dupree is a guy Dallas brought in so he is on the list. He would be a decent value there and I could totally see him getting taken at 27. He doesn't finish as much as you'd hope, but he is disruptive. Dallas has long looked just as favorably on guys who are disruptive vs. guys who finish. You would think with the Hardy signing they would be out on DEs, but Dallas's defensive staff runs a rush at all costs scheme.
Plus maybe they see something else there?
I wonder if they think he could play a little strong side LB for now and bring a rush. Who knows. Dallas's defensive staff loves the idea of bringing in a LB who can rush the passer out of a 4-3. That's why they were ready to take Shazier last year. Dupree clocked a pretty amazing 40 time for his size. Normally consistent multi-year production, decent size, and a borderline freakish 40 time goes around 10-15 in the draft. In that, there seems to be some value there. I don't love him as a prospect, but I could warm to him if he can fill in at SLB this year.
I think a solid strategy might be trading down to 31 or 32 or even the 2nd round.
I am worried about that current spot though as I could see Dallas "reaching" at least IMO for guys like RB Tevin Coleman or LB Bernardrick McKinney. Coleman is no doubt a burner capable of breaking long runs even in the NFL, but to me I don't see a great back there. I think he will get stopped too frequently on short yardage runs and I don't trust him pass blocking. He's a great RB for a 9 win team, but maybe not for a team that wants to win the superbowl. I think he will be a guy good defenses control.
He is a second round back to me, but his speed has caught some teams' attention and he could go late first. (That isn't a bad spot to take a RB as you get 5 years on that contract. Why get a RB in the 33-40 range when you can pick him at 31 or 32 at a trivial cost and get an extra year on his rookie contract? NFL GMs weirdly haven't figured that out.) I just hope it isn't to Dallas that picks him.
I think we may have a similar player in Darren McFadden, but one who is a better blocker.
While I don't love the McKinney idea, I would be ok with that at 32. He does look like a starter. He would solve the vitally important MLB spot for the next 10 years with a guy who seems stable.
Wednesday, April 8, 2015
Give me Eric Dickerson/Adrian Peterson.
When you talk about RBs in this class, fans and scouts tend to get very silly. They talk about this being the best class for RBs in years.
I seriously doubt it.
But there is one back in this class who I think is flat out dynamite, that Dallas actually has a legitimate chance of getting.
Todd Gurley is his name. But don't call him that.
If you call him Todd Gurley, you will think of that guy with a knee injury.
Call him "Eric Dickerson/Adrian Peterson". That's more accurate.
IF he doesn't turn out to be a chronic injury concern, he will be one of the two or three best players in this draft and in all likelihood, the best.
If he does happen to be a chronic injury player he will only be a faster, more focused version of DeMarco Murray. This guy is a very polished runner who set up his blockers. He's a much better runner than DeMarco (and DeMarco is pretty good) and far, far faster.
You can find all kinds of videos of backs getting clean holes and running away from average defenders. There are tons of videos of Gurley outrunning (overrated, but still respectable) SEC secondaries. This kind of video separates the real deal runners from the rest for me.
That is vs. a pretty good defense.
And unlike the vast majority of the rest of this draft class, he can block well enough to keep Tony Romo upright.
This guy is like a stronger, faster version of Marshawn Lynch. Where Lynch wiggles and twist out of tackles and falls forwards to pick up an additional two yards, this guy powers through arm tackles and explodes forwards for TDs.
He looks like a hybrid of Adrian Peterson and Eric Dickerson to me. He has speed like Dickerson and a game that doesn't pale next to Adrian Peterson's.
Don't tell me about giving up the first round pick for Adrian Peterson. Tell me about trading 1,3,&4 to get into 18-23 range and pick this guy ahead of Arizona.
Don't give me 2-3 years of greatness. Give me 10.
I seriously doubt it.
But there is one back in this class who I think is flat out dynamite, that Dallas actually has a legitimate chance of getting.
Todd Gurley is his name. But don't call him that.
If you call him Todd Gurley, you will think of that guy with a knee injury.
Call him "Eric Dickerson/Adrian Peterson". That's more accurate.
IF he doesn't turn out to be a chronic injury concern, he will be one of the two or three best players in this draft and in all likelihood, the best.
If he does happen to be a chronic injury player he will only be a faster, more focused version of DeMarco Murray. This guy is a very polished runner who set up his blockers. He's a much better runner than DeMarco (and DeMarco is pretty good) and far, far faster.
You can find all kinds of videos of backs getting clean holes and running away from average defenders. There are tons of videos of Gurley outrunning (overrated, but still respectable) SEC secondaries. This kind of video separates the real deal runners from the rest for me.
That is vs. a pretty good defense.
And unlike the vast majority of the rest of this draft class, he can block well enough to keep Tony Romo upright.
This guy is like a stronger, faster version of Marshawn Lynch. Where Lynch wiggles and twist out of tackles and falls forwards to pick up an additional two yards, this guy powers through arm tackles and explodes forwards for TDs.
He looks like a hybrid of Adrian Peterson and Eric Dickerson to me. He has speed like Dickerson and a game that doesn't pale next to Adrian Peterson's.
Don't tell me about giving up the first round pick for Adrian Peterson. Tell me about trading 1,3,&4 to get into 18-23 range and pick this guy ahead of Arizona.
Don't give me 2-3 years of greatness. Give me 10.
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